SACE Stage 2 Earth and Environmental Science · Topic 3: Earth’s sustainable future
Energy.
South Australia now makes most of its electricity from the wind and the sun, and still burns gas when they drop. Gather the evidence on seven energy sources, weigh it up with criteria you choose, and test a mix for the state against three model weeks of weather.
How the decision works
1 · Gather the evidence
Screens 2 to 6 look at why renewable energy is needed, the four renewables in the subject outline, how much energy each technology collects, how electricity is stored and moved, and what each source leaves behind. Each screen adds criteria to your decision matrix.
2 · Weigh it up
On screen 7 you choose how much each criterion counts and whether to rule any source out. The matrix ranks the seven sources and shows how much the ranking depends on your weights.
3 · Test and review
Screen 8 runs a mix of sources through three model weeks of South Australian weather, to see whether it keeps the lights on. Then you write your recommendation, and screen 9 has eight questions.
Your decision matrix so far
What we are learning
Why the world needs renewable sources of energy and what limits them, how efficiently energy can be collected, stored and transferred, what waste each source leaves, and how to weigh the advantages and disadvantages of renewable and non-renewable energy to make a decision.
I can
- 1explain why the world needs renewable sources of energy.
- 2discuss the need for, and limitations of, biofuels, solar, wind and geothermal energy.
- 3explain how the efficiency of a technology limits how much of an energy source becomes electricity.
- 4explain why electricity has to be stored and transferred, and what is lost when it is.
- 5describe the waste each energy source leaves and how it is disposed of.
- 6compare the advantages and disadvantages of renewable and non-renewable energy resources.
- 7use weighted criteria to make a decision, and test how much it depends on the weights.
- 8recommend a mix of energy sources for South Australia and justify it with evidence.
SACE Stage 2 Earth and Environmental Science, Topic 3: Earth’s sustainable future. This lesson covers the renewable energy dot point of the first Science Understanding statement, and the third statement. The Water and soil lesson covers the rest of the first statement and the second. The teacher notes at the end quote the statements in full.
My notebook
Decision sheet
Three pages: a decision matrix to fill in as you go, a table for the need and limits of each renewable, and a page for your weights, your test results and your recommendation for South Australia. Print one per student.
1Evidence 1
Why renewables?.
Why does the world need renewable sources of energy?
The world uses about four times as much energy as it did in 1965, and more than four-fifths of it still comes from coal, oil and gas. Those fuels are not replenished on any human time scale, and burning them adds carbon dioxide to the air. South Australia shows how quickly an electricity system can change.
This screen · about 12 minutes
- Read the chart of the world’s energy use since 1965.
- Read the chart of where South Australia’s electricity has come from since 2011–12.
- Add two columns to your decision matrix: greenhouse gases, and whether the source lasts.
- Answer the check.
The topic outline says that “increases in human life span and greater use of scientific and technological knowledge have increased the global demand for energy”. Between 1965 and 2024 the world’s population grew from 3.3 billion to 8.2 billion, and the primary energy used by each person rose from about 13,000 to about 21,700 kWh a year (Energy Institute and US Energy Information Administration, via Our World in Data).
The world’s energy since 1965
DataShow the numbers as a table
Primary energy in terawatt-hours (TWh) each year. Electricity from nuclear power and renewables is counted as the fuel a power station would need to make the same amount (the substitution method). Renewables are hydro, wind, solar, biofuels and other renewables. Data: Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy (2025), and the US Energy Information Administration, via Our World in Data.
Coal, oil and gas took millions of years to form, so they are not replenished on any human time scale. At 2024 rates, Australia’s oil and gas reserves would last 8 to 17 years and its black coal about 165 (Geoscience Australia, 2026; see the Coal, oil and gas lesson). Burning them releases carbon dioxide, and the IPCC (2021) finds that “It is unequivocal that the increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) since the pre-industrial period are caused by human activities” (see the Climate evidence lesson).
Renewable sources of energy are replenished as they are used. Sunlight and wind arrive every day; crops and forests regrow; heat flows up from inside the Earth. The question for this lesson is what limits them, and how they compare with coal, gas and uranium.
Where South Australia’s electricity came from
DataShow the numbers as a table
Electricity made in South Australia each year, in gigawatt-hours (GWh), for years ending 30 June. Solar is rooftop panels and solar farms together; other is batteries, diesel and small generators. Net imports from other states are in the table: a negative number means South Australia sent out more than it took in. Data: AEMO, South Australian Historical Market Information Report (2016, 2017) for 2011–12 to 2016–17, and South Australian Electricity Report (2019 to 2023, and 2025) for later years. AEMO revises past figures between reports, so they can differ slightly from older editions.
The Northern Power Station at Port Augusta, South Australia’s last coal-fired power station, closed on 9 May 2016 (AEMO). In 2024–25 wind made 44.5% of South Australia’s electricity, rooftop solar 22.4% and gas 20.8% (AEMO, 2025). The state government says renewables rose “from 1% in 2007 to over 75% in 2025”, and its aim is “to achieve 100% net renewable electricity by 2027 when calculated across a year”. Net means that over a year the state’s renewable generation adds up to its demand: South Australia still imports electricity at some times and burns gas when the wind and sun drop (screen 5).
South Australia’s generators released 1.57 million tonnes of greenhouse gases (as CO2-e) in 2024–25, and AEMO gives 0.14 tonnes for each megawatt-hour (AEMO, 2025). Divided by all the electricity in the chart above, rooftop solar included, the 1.57 million tonnes come to about 0.10 tonnes for each megawatt-hour (our arithmetic). For Australia’s power stations as a whole it was about 0.62 tonnes for each megawatt-hour (Clean Energy Regulator, 2024–25; our arithmetic).
Which reason for using renewable energy is best supported by the evidence on this screen?
My notebook
2Evidence 2
Four renewables.
Why are biofuels, solar, wind and geothermal energy needed, and what limits them?
The subject outline names four renewable sources of energy. Each is needed for a different reason, and each has its own limits. Geothermal is the one most tied to geology, so this screen takes you 4 km down into the hot granite of the Cooper Basin.
This screen · about 18 minutes
- Read the four cards and sort twelve statements into reasons each source is needed and its limitations.
- Step through the hot rock project near Innamincka, and read temperature against depth on the chart.
- Read the box on hydrogen.
- Add the Land column to your matrix, and answer the check.
The four in Australia
Liquid fuel from crops and waste
Australia typically makes 175 to 250 million litres of fuel ethanol a year from grains and sugar by-products, and ethanol is blended into petrol at up to 10% (E10) (ANZ, 2026). Even so, ethanol was just over 1% of petrol sales in the year to July 2026, and the ethanol mandates in New South Wales and Queensland “are not strictly enforced” (Argus, 2026). The federal government sees low carbon liquid fuels as a way to “reduce emissions in sectors that are difficult to electrify, including aviation, heavy transport, mining, agriculture and defence” (DCCEEW, 2026). The limits include competition “between fuel, food and feed uses”, water and land, and feedstocks that make up “up to 80 percent of current biofuel production costs” (ANZ, 2026).
ANZ (2026); Argus (2026); DCCEEW (2026)
Half of South Australia’s homes
About 49% of South Australian homes have rooftop solar, and in 2024–25 rooftop panels made 22.4% of the state’s electricity, more than gas; solar farms such as Bungala near Port Augusta and Tailem Bend made another 10.1% (AEMO, 2025). Large-scale solar is one of the lowest-cost sources of new electricity in Australia (ARENA). Its limits: panels make nothing at night and less in winter, and on mild sunny days they can push demand on the grid below zero, to −263 MW on 25 December 2025 (AEMO, 2026).
AEMO (2025, 2026); ARENA
South Australia’s biggest source
Wind made 44.5% of South Australia’s electricity in 2024–25, more than any other source (AEMO, 2025). The largest wind farm, Goyder South, has 75 turbines on the lands of the Ngadjuri Nation near Burra and is expected to make about 1.5 TWh a year (Neoen, 2025). But “the wind does not continuously blow”, so wind farms are paired with solar farms and storage (ARENA), and in June 2026 the state’s wind farms averaged 3.4% of their capacity for three days running (AEMO, 2026).
AEMO (2025, 2026); Neoen (2025); ARENA
Heat from the rocks below
“It is not variable and does not require energy storage to provide a constant supply of electricity or heat” (Geoscience Australia, 2026). Geothermal heat made 25.6% of New Zealand’s electricity in January 2026 (Electricity Authority, 2026) and 27% of Iceland’s in 2015 (Government of Iceland). In Australia, “presently there is no commercial production of geothermal energy”, and drilling technology limits economic development to about 5 km down (Geoscience Australia, 2023). Taking heat out also cools the rock: a reservoir used for electricity can take “up to several hundred years” to recover (Rybach, 2003).
Geoscience Australia (2023, 2026); Electricity Authority (2026); Government of Iceland; Rybach (2003)
Needed, or limited?
0 of 12 sortedFor each statement, choose whether it is a reason the source is needed or one of its limitations. The feedback gives the evidence.
Hot rocks under the Cooper Basin
Near Innamincka, in the far north-east of South Australia, granite lies under about 3.8 km of sedimentary rock (Geoscience Australia, about 2010). “The decay of radioactive elements (mostly uranium, thorium and potassium) over millions of years produces heat in the granite”, and the sedimentary cover traps it “like a blanket” (Geoscience Australia, 2007). The company Geodynamics drilled into the granite to test whether its heat could make electricity, using a technology called an enhanced geothermal system.
How hot does it get, how deep?
DataThe geothermal gradient is how fast the temperature rises with depth. The world average is “around 30°C/km” (Arup, for the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, 2025). The Cooper Basin points are measured: about 250 °C at the bottom of Habanero 1, 4,421 m down (Wyborn and others, 2005), and more than 270 °C at 4,911 m (Geoscience Australia, about 2010). The temperatures at the surface (20 °C and 25 °C) are assumed, and the lines between the points are drawn straight. On these numbers the Cooper Basin gradient is about 50 °C per km (our arithmetic).
A way to store energy: hydrogen
A fuel that has to be made
Hydrogen “is not freely available as a gas on Earth”, and “it is a clean fuel, emitting only water vapour and heat when combusted” (Geoscience Australia). It has to be made: “Close to 98% of hydrogen is presently generated from fossil fuels such as natural gas” (Oresome Resources), while splitting water with renewable electricity (electrolysis) emits almost no greenhouse gases (Oresome Resources). Turned back into electricity, it returns about 30% (Pellow and others, 2015) to around 40% (Sandia National Laboratories) of the electricity that made it.
Geoscience Australia; Oresome Resources; Pellow and others (2015); Sandia
The Hydrogen Jobs Plan
In 2022 the South Australian Government committed $593 million to a hydrogen plant at Whyalla: 250 MW of electrolysers, a 200 MW hydrogen power station and hydrogen storage (CSIRO HyResource). In February 2025 the money was redirected to secure the Whyalla Steelworks and the plan was deferred, and in May 2025 the Office of Hydrogen Power was dissolved (Government of South Australia, 2025). In October 2026 the four hydrogen-capable gas turbines bought for it were still being stored, and “no sale has yet eventuated” (InDaily, 2026). The SACE outline suggests you “Evaluate the economic, social, and environmental impacts of the use of hydrogen as an energy source.” This case is a place to start.
CSIRO HyResource (2025); Government of South Australia (2025); InDaily (2026)
Why has hot rock geothermal energy not been used commercially for electricity in Australia, even though the Cooper Basin granite is about 250 °C at 4.4 km?
My notebook
3Evidence 3
Collecting the energy.
How much of the energy in sunlight, wind or fuel becomes electricity, and what does it cost?
The outline says the effective use of energy resources is limited by “the efficiency of available technologies to collect, store, and transfer the energy”. This screen is about collecting: following 100 units of energy from the source to the wires, and seeing what is lost, and what the electricity costs.
This screen · about 15 minutes
- Follow the energy through at least four technologies.
- Change the wind speed on the turbine model.
- Read how the price and efficiency of solar panels changed over a decade.
- Add the Cost column to your matrix, and answer the check.
Efficiency matters in different ways. In a coal, gas or nuclear power station, every unit of energy lost is fuel that was mined and paid for, and for coal and gas it is carbon dioxide released for nothing. Sunlight and wind are free, so a low efficiency mostly means more panels or turbines, more land and more materials for the same electricity. CSIRO’s GenCost report sets the fuel efficiency of wind and solar at 100% in its cost formula, and explains that “The conversion efficiency of solar irradiance and wind to electricity is accounted for in the capital cost” (CSIRO, 2026).
Solar panels over a decade
DataShow the numbers as a table
The price of solar panels (modules only, not installation) in US dollars per watt, adjusted for inflation to 2025 dollars. From 2010 the prices are benchmarks for modules sold in Europe. The step between 2019 and 2020 joins two IRENA series. Data: IRENA (2025, 2026), with processing by Our World in Data. The outline suggests you “Investigate the cost and efficiency of solar panels over the past decade.”
Over the same decade, “the efficiency of commercial silicon modules based on monocrystalline wafers has risen from about 17% to just under 25%”, and the average across all silicon modules was 22.7% at the end of 2024 (Fraunhofer ISE, 2026). The price of a module fell by about 85% between 2014 and 2025 (Our World in Data; our arithmetic).
The cost of a unit of electricity depends on much more than efficiency: the cost of building the plant, its fuel, how often it runs and how long it lasts. These are combined in the levelised cost of electricity. CSIRO’s GenCost 2025–26 draft gave indicative costs of $52 to $88 per MWh for solar PV, $78 to $129 for onshore wind, $121 to $195 for new black coal, $135 to $203 for gas and $200 to $328 for large-scale nuclear (as listed by the Clean Energy Council, 2025). In the final report’s comparison for 2050, “Nuclear small modular reactors (SMRs) are the highest cost” (CSIRO, 2026).
Wind and solar need something more. GenCost says “LCOE does not include renewable integration costs”: the storage and transmission that firm wind and solar so that supply always meets demand. Its estimate for a grid in 2050 built mainly on solar and wind, with all its firming, is $141 to $152 per MWh, and it found “no new build technology options, fossil or non-fossil with firming costs, that cost less than $100/MWh” (CSIRO, 2026).
A rooftop panel turns about 23% of the sunlight on it into electricity. A combined-cycle gas plant turns about 45% of the energy in its gas into electricity. Which conclusion is correct?
My notebook
4Evidence 4
Store it, move it.
Why does electricity have to be stored and moved, and what is lost on the way?
Wind and sunshine arrive when the weather allows, not when people switch on their heaters. South Australia fills the gaps with batteries, with gas, and with electricity from other states. Every way of storing or moving electricity loses some of it.
This screen · about 15 minutes
- Run a sunny, still day in the model. Add storage, and watch what happens to the gas and to the electricity from other states.
- Swap the battery for hydrogen and compare. Then run a cloudy, still winter day.
- Read how much each kind of storage gives back, the 2016 blackout case and the Alice Springs case.
- Add the On demand column to your matrix, and answer the three checks.
Electricity is made at the moment it is used, unless it is stored. In the middle of a sunny day South Australia’s rooftop panels can make more than the whole state is using: on 25 December 2025 the demand on the grid fell to −263 MW (AEMO, 2026), because “high distributed PV output reduces the need for grid-delivered electricity” around noon (AEMO, 2025). After sunset the same homes need power from somewhere else.
Still weather lasts longer than a night. On 21 and 22 June 2026, as Adelaide fell below 5 °C and demand passed 2,000 MW, wind generation across the state dropped to about 50 MW. Imports from Victoria were limited because the rating of a transmission line in New South Wales had been cut, the state’s batteries ran down to around 10% of their storage, and “gas and liquid fuel generation was required to supply a very high share of the region’s demand” (AEMO, 2026).
The model shows two limits. Storage can move spare wind and solar from one part of a day to another, but on a cloudy, still day there is little spare to store. And every store gives back less than it takes in. The share it gives back is its round-trip efficiency.
How much comes back?
DataShow the numbers as a table
Each bar starts with 100 units of electricity. For storage it shows how much comes back out; for the grid, how much reaches customers. Batteries and pumped hydro are measured averages for the United States fleet in 2019 (US Energy Information Administration); the battery range also includes NREL’s modelling assumption of 85%. Hydrogen covers estimates for making hydrogen with electricity and turning it back into electricity in a fuel cell (Pellow and others, 2015; NREL, 2019; Sandia). Network losses are for Australia in 2025 (World Bank, from IEA data).
Moving electricity between states
South Australia is joined to the rest of the National Electricity Market by three links. The Heywood interconnector to Victoria is designed to carry up to 650 MW either way. Murraylink, from Red Cliffs in Victoria to Berri, is a 180 km high-voltage direct current line carrying up to 220 MW. Project EnergyConnect to New South Wales carried 150 MW from 2025; it was registered with AEMO on 1 October 2026 and testing to its full 800 MW in both directions begins in November 2026 (AEMO, 2026). Long lines lose energy as heat: about 3.5% per 1,000 km on a direct current line, against 6.7% on a comparable alternating current line (US Energy Information Administration, 2018, citing Siemens).
Two real cases
The day the whole state went dark
Tornadoes with winds of 190 to 260 km/h brought down three transmission lines. A rapid run of faults made nine wind farms cut their output by 456 MW in under seven seconds, because a protection setting allowed only a set number of voltage dips in two minutes. Imports surged through the Heywood interconnector until it tripped, and with far less generation than load, all supply to South Australia was lost at 4.18 pm. AEMO found that “Wind turbines successfully rode through grid disturbances” and that “It was the action of a control setting responding to multiple disturbances that led to the Black System.” The settings were changed, and all customers had power again by 11 October.
AEMO (2017), Black System South Australia 28 September 2016
The big battery
The Hornsdale Power Reserve, next to the Hornsdale Wind Farm, began as a 100 MW, 129 MWh battery late in 2017 and was expanded to 150 MW and 193.5 MWh in 2020. AEMO found it “is capable of responding more rapidly to a contingency event than conventional synchronous generation.” In 2022 it became “the first big battery in the world to deliver grid-scale inertia services” (CEFC), a job “traditionally” done by gas or coal generators. By 2026 South Australia’s large batteries could deliver around 1.7 GW of power and close to 5 GWh of storage (Government of South Australia).
AEMO (2018); Neoen; CEFC (2022); Government of South Australia (2026)
A real case in the Northern Territory
A small grid on its own
The Northern Territory’s three power systems “are very small, isolated” (Utilities Commission, 2023), so, unlike South Australia, Alice Springs cannot bring in electricity from other states. At 2.18 pm on Sunday 13 October 2019 the whole Alice Springs system went dark, and 11,996 customers lost power: some for about 30 minutes, others for up to 10 hours, as supply was restored in stages. The first event was a sudden fall in output from the Uterne solar farm and rooftop panels, but the investigators did not find that cloud cover was a root cause. The Utilities Commission found the system black could not be attributed to a single point of failure, and the minister’s media release said “The failures are technical, complex and involve both equipment failure and human error”.
Utilities Commission of the Northern Territory (2021, 2023); Australian Energy Council (2020); NT Government (2019)
On a sunny afternoon a battery stores 1,000 MWh of spare solar electricity. About how much can it give back that evening?
In the model, why does a bigger battery do little on the cloudy, still winter day?
Alice Springs and South Australia both get a lot of their electricity from solar panels. Why is a sudden fall in solar output riskier in Alice Springs?
My notebook
5Evidence 5
What it leaves behind.
What waste does each way of making electricity leave, and how is it disposed of?
Every source of electricity leaves waste: ash and gases from burning fuel, tailings from mining, spent fuel from a reactor, and panels, blades and batteries at the end of their lives. The subject outline names waste disposal as one of the factors that limit how well energy resources can be used.
This screen · about 12 minutes
- Sort ten kinds of waste by where they end up.
- Read the chart of how much of each Australia produces in a year.
- Add the Waste column to your decision matrix.
- Answer the check.
Burning fuel
“Australian power stations alone produce an estimated 10–12 million tonnes of coal ash annually” (Environmental Justice Australia, 2019). At most coal-fired power stations the ash is mixed with waste water and pumped into dams, where the solids settle out. Contaminants can leach through the bottom of an ash dam into the groundwater, and ash that dries out can blow away as dust (Environmental Justice Australia, 2019).
A gas-fired power station leaves little solid waste, but burning gas makes carbon dioxide: South Australia’s gas plants released between 0.42 and 0.88 tonnes of it (as CO2-e) for each megawatt-hour in 2024–25 (Clean Energy Regulator). Methane also leaks from gas wells and pipes, and in Australia’s reporting a tonne of methane counts as 28 tonnes of carbon dioxide (Clean Energy Regulator, 2020). Greenhouse gases have their own column in your matrix, so the Waste column on this screen is about solid and liquid waste.
A real case: Port Augusta
An ash dam after the power station closed
South Australia’s last coal-fired power station, Northern, at Port Augusta, made its last electricity in May 2016. Its ash dam had grown to 273 hectares and 5 to 8 m deep. In January 2017, hail and strong winds stripped the coating off the dried-out ash, and the ash blew over the city.
The EPA reached a $2,200 out-of-court settlement with Flinders Power, the company split off from Alinta Energy to close the station and clean up the site. It spent more than $1 million putting soil over the ash, then sowed a 320-hectare revegetation project with six tonnes of native seed, most of it saltbush.
RenewEconomy (2019); ABC News (2018)
Uranium and nuclear power
In 2024 all three of Australia’s producing uranium mines were in South Australia, and Australia holds more than one-third of the world’s known uranium resources, but “Australian uranium production is not used for power generation in Australia” (Geoscience Australia, 2026). Two federal laws prohibit nuclear power plants: the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Act 1998 (section 10) and the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (section 140A). At Olympic Dam the tailings left after processing the ore are pumped as a slurry to a tailings storage facility of several cells up to 30 m high; one cell alone covers 260 hectares (BHP, 2020).
A reactor’s waste is small in volume but lasts a very long time. “A typical, modern, light water reactor, for example, will probably produce about 20 tonnes of spent nuclear fuel in a year”, while “a coal-fired plant of the same size will emit up to 6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide directly into the atmosphere” (IAEA, 2017). Spent fuel stays highly radioactive for tens of thousands of years (AFP, 2026). On 22 October 2026 Finland granted an operating licence for Onkalo, a repository about 450 m underground, the first in the world for spent fuel (AFP; World Nuclear News, 2026). Australia’s own radioactive waste, much of it from medical and research work, is stored at more than 100 locations (ANSTO, 2021; ARWA, 2025). In 2023 the Federal Court set aside the decision to build a national facility near Kimba, after a challenge by the Barngarla people, and the federal government decided not to pursue that site.
Panels, blades and batteries
Renewable energy and storage leave their waste at the end of the equipment’s life. Solar panel waste in Australia is predicted to rise from 59,340 tonnes in 2025 to 91,165 tonnes in 2030 (NSW Government, 2025), and in January 2026 federal ministers said “Only 17 per cent of solar panels are currently recycled.” Victoria bans e-waste, solar panels included, from landfill. For wind farms, “85–94 per cent of a wind turbine (by mass) can avoid landfill”. Most of the rest is the blades, made of composites such as fibreglass and epoxy resin, and Australia will have 15,000 tonnes of blade waste by 2034 (Clean Energy Council, 2023). “Australia produces around 3,300 tonnes of lithium-ion battery waste each year”, and in 2021 only about 10 per cent was recycled (CSIRO, 2024). “Most geothermal power plants also inject the steam and water they use back into the earth” (US Energy Information Administration).
Where does it end up?
0 of 10 sortedChoose where each waste goes. The feedback gives the numbers and their sources.
How much waste in a year?
DataShow the numbers as a table
The scale goes up ten times at each step, so the bars can show a few tonnes and millions of tonnes on one chart. The figures are for different years and are estimates, so compare their size, not their exact values. Solar panel and blade waste will grow as more panels and turbines reach the end of their lives.
Which statement is best supported by the evidence on this screen?
My notebook
6Decide
Weigh it up.
Which source of electricity comes out best, and how much does that depend on what you value?
Your matrix now holds six columns of evidence. Decide how much each criterion counts, and whether any source should be ruled out first. The matrix adds up the scores; the judgements are yours.
This screen · about 15 minutes
- Set a weight for each criterion, and explain your choices in your notebook.
- Try at least one cut-off, and see what it does to the ranking.
- Read the sensitivity line: does your top choice hang on one weight?
- Compare renewable with non-renewable sources, and answer the two checks.
People make decisions like this in two main ways. Weighing adds up every score, each multiplied by how much its criterion counts, so a strength on one criterion can make up for a weakness on another. A cut-off rules a source out if it fails one test, whatever its other scores. A review of research on students’ decisions about issues like this found that they struggle to rank the criteria and to choose a suitable way to decide (Fang, Hsu and Lin, 2019). There is no single right set of weights: they show what you value, so be ready to defend them.
Which comparison of renewable and non-renewable sources is supported by the matrix?
A student rules out every source that cannot supply on demand, so wind and solar vanish from her ranking. What has her method missed?
My notebook
7Test and review
Test the plan.
Would your choice keep South Australia’s lights on, and what would it cost the climate?
A decision matrix scores one source at a time. A real grid runs many together, hour by hour, through still nights and heatwaves. Build a mix for South Australia and run it through three model weeks.
This screen · about 20 minutes
- Run South Australia’s 2026 mix through all three weeks. Then run your top-ranked source on its own.
- Change the mix until it meets the goals. Try more than one way.
- Read the two cases, and answer the check.
- Write your recommendation in your notebook.
What the test shows
No single source passes every test. Wind and sun are cheap and low in emissions but come and go with the weather; batteries move energy within a day but not across a still week; links to other states depend on what the neighbours can spare; gas fills the gaps but burns a finite fuel. A real plan is a mix, and the weights you chose on screen 7 decide which mix you prefer.
The model leaves out much of what keeps a real grid running: the limits of transmission lines inside the state, the inertia and system strength that spinning generators or grid-forming batteries provide, plants breaking down, and prices. AEMO studies these for South Australia every year in its South Australian Electricity Report.
Two real cases
From coal to wind and sun
When the Northern Power Station closed on 9 May 2016, 139 workers were to leave the plant over the following fortnight (InDaily, 2016). Since then the Bungala solar farm, of about 600 hectares, has been built near the town (Enel, 2018), and Sundrop Farms was built with more than 23,000 mirrors and a 127 m tower to heat its greenhouses and turn sea water from Spencer Gulf into fresh water (RenewEconomy, 2016). The Port Augusta Renewable Energy Park, about 8 km south-east of the city, combines 50 wind turbines of 4.2 MW and 250,000 solar panels, 317 MW in all; it cost A$500 million and created 200 construction jobs (Iberdrola, 2024). The outline suggests you “Explore the benefits of new technology for a local community”.
InDaily (2016); Enel (2018); RenewEconomy (2016); Iberdrola (2024)
When there is too much sun
So many homes have rooftop solar that on mild, sunny days demand on the grid can fall very low. From 28 September 2020, every new rooftop system in South Australia has had to be able to be switched off remotely, to help “avoid a potential black out if South Australia is separated from the rest of the National Electricity Market (NEM)”, and “This measure will only be used as a last resort” (Government of South Australia). It was first used on 14 March 2021: to keep demand on the grid above 400 MW during a planned outage on a major powerline, 67 MW of solar was curtailed, more than 10 MW of it through the new rules (AEMO, 2021). It is an example of a technology bringing an unexpected problem that then had to be monitored and managed.
Government of South Australia; AEMO (2021)
Why can South Australia not run on wind alone, even with a very large wind farm fleet?
My notebook
8Show what you know
Show what you know.
Eight questions, one for each of the I can statements on screen 1. You get one try at each, so think before you tap.
Which pair of facts best explains why the world needs renewable sources of energy?
Which statement gives a real limitation of the renewable source it names?
Which statement about the efficiency of collecting energy is correct?
South Australia has more than a gigawatt of large batteries. Why did gas still supply a very high share of demand on 21 and 22 June 2026?
Which waste has to be kept away from people and the environment for the longest time?
Which comparison of a renewable and a non-renewable source is correct?
Two students use the same scores but different weights. One ranks gas first, the other solar. What does this show?
Which recommendation for South Australia is best justified by the evidence in this lesson?
Decision sheet
Three pages: a decision matrix to fill in as you go, a table for the need and limits of each renewable, and a page for your weights, your test results and your recommendation for South Australia. Print one per student.
For teachers
Curriculum
SACE Board of South Australia, Stage 2 Earth and Environmental Science Subject Outline (accredited for teaching at Stage 2 from 2018, reissued for 2025), Topic 3: Earth’s sustainable future. NT students take the subject as part of the NTCET. The topic outline says:
Students investigate how effective use of resources is constrained by factors such as waste disposal, and the efficiency of energy technologies. They consider how the desire to use more renewable sources to increase supply has generated discussion about the advantages and disadvantages of renewable and non-renewable resources, and changes in practice that might lead to a more sustainable future.
Students explore the consequences of using various types of renewable energy resources, and factors affecting the sustainability of soil, water, and energy resources. They investigate a range of aspects of soil, water, and energy use, and use critical-thinking skills to evaluate data and develop logical solutions.
The topic has three Science Understanding statements. This lesson covers the first statement’s dot point on renewable energy, and the third statement with its dot point. The Water and soil lesson covers the rest of the first statement and the second.
Renewable resources include some that are available regularly and others that are replenished at time scales from years to millennia.
- Discuss the need for, and limitations of, renewable sources of energy, including biofuels, solar, wind, and geothermal energy.
- Determine whether a renewable resource is either diminished or sustained over time, given the abundance of the resource and how readily it can be replenished.
- Investigate how the timescale required to replenish a large groundwater system, such as the Great Artesian Basin, is influenced by the rate of depletion of the system.
- Discuss the sustainability of soil and water at local, regional, and global scales.
The availability and quality of fresh water can be influenced by human activities, and natural processes at local and regional scales.
- Discuss how stormwater run-off in urban areas may be recycled for community use so that it is not wasted and does not pollute waterways.
- Explain how overextraction of groundwater from near-coastal aquifers may cause inflow of sea water.
- Explain how pollution of groundwater can result from a variety of rural, urban, and industrial activities.
The effective use of energy resources is constrained by factors including waste disposal, and the efficiency of available technologies to collect, store, and transfer the energy.
- Compare the advantages and disadvantages of using renewable and non-renewable energy resources.
Where the lesson covers them:
- The need for, and limitations of, renewable sources of energy: screen 2 (the world’s energy since 1965, Australia’s fossil fuel reserves and South Australia’s electricity since 2011–12), screen 3 (biofuels, solar, wind and geothermal, a sort of twelve statements, the hot rock project near Innamincka and a chart of temperature against depth), and exit questions x1 and x2.
- The efficiency of technologies to collect the energy: screen 4 (100 units of energy followed through seven technologies, a wind turbine model, and solar panel prices and efficiency from 2014 to 2025), and x3.
- The efficiency of technologies to store and transfer the energy: screen 5 (a model day with three kinds of storage, round-trip efficiency, the links to other states and losses on long lines, the 2016 blackout and the Hornsdale battery), and x4.
- Waste disposal: screen 6 (ash, gases, tailings, spent fuel, panels, blades and batteries, a sort of ten wastes by where they end up, a chart of how much there is, and the Port Augusta ash dam), and x5.
- Comparing renewable and non-renewable resources: the decision matrix built across screens 2 to 6, screen 7 (weights, cut-offs, a sensitivity test and the averages for each group), screen 8 (a mix tested against three model weeks) and x6 to x8.
The lesson also uses these of the outline’s possible contexts:
Research the development of wind farms in a chosen location (region, state, or territory) and/or arrange a local visit to report on current and proposed electricity generation, costs of construction, and ongoing maintenance needs.
Evaluate the economic, social, and environmental impacts of the use of hydrogen as an energy source.
Investigate the cost and efficiency of solar panels over the past decade.
Screen 3 gives a starting point for the first two (Goyder South near Burra, and the Whyalla hydrogen plan), and screen 4 has the prices and efficiency of solar panels from 2014 to 2025. The outline’s context on the benefits of new technology for a local community names a “Jamestown solar/wind hybrid plant” but links to Iberdrola’s page for its Port Augusta project; screen 8 uses the Port Augusta project. Hornsdale, near Jamestown, has the wind farm and battery on screen 5. The lesson does not use the contexts on carbon calculators or on the hydroelectricity plants in the Italian Alps and São Paulo; the data notes below say what we found about the second.
Screen 3 also draws on Stage 1, Topic 3: Processes in the Geosphere, which has:
Interpret graphs of the Earth’s geothermal gradient.
Describe the transfer of geothermal energy from the decay of naturally occurring radioactive elements to rocks.
Science as a human endeavour runs through the lesson. Its key concepts in the outline include these, used in the screens shown:
The acceptance and use of scientific knowledge can be influenced by social, economic, cultural, and ethical considerations.
Screen 3: the Habanero pilot plant made electricity, but Geodynamics judged that the spending needed to develop the resource was “not economic”, and the Whyalla hydrogen money went to the steelworks; screen 6: two federal laws prohibit nuclear power plants; screen 7: the weights students choose are values, not measurements.
Scientific knowledge, understanding, and inquiry can enable scientists to develop solutions, make discoveries, design action for sustainability, evaluate economic, social, cultural, and environmental impacts, offer valid explanations, and make reliable predictions.
Screen 4: CSIRO’s GenCost estimates of what each technology costs; screen 5: the Hornsdale battery, the first big battery in the world to provide inertia services; screen 8: AEMO’s yearly studies of South Australia’s supply.
The use of scientific knowledge may have beneficial or unexpected consequences; this requires monitoring, assessment, and evaluation of risk, and provides opportunities for innovation.
Screen 5: a control setting in wind farms turned storm damage into a statewide blackout in 2016, and the settings were changed; screen 6: the Port Augusta ash dam blew over the city after the power station closed; screen 8: so many rooftop panels that the state now has a rule to switch them off remotely as a last resort.
Science informs public debate and is in turn influenced by public debate; at times, there may be complex, unanticipated variables or insufficient data that may limit possible conclusions.
Screen 4: GenCost’s nuclear costs have been argued over in federal politics; screen 7: a ranking that can change with one weight; screen 8: the June 2026 still spell, when several limits arrived together.
Assessment design criteria the tasks give practice for: KA1 and KA2 (the checks and sorts), KA3 (the decision itself, where evidence meets values), KA4 (the recommendation on screen 8 and the decision sheet), IAE2 and IAE3 (reading the charts, the matrix and the model results to justify a recommendation) and IAE4 (judging the matrix method, its weights and cut-offs, and the limits of the grid model).
How the lesson is taught
The lesson is a socioscientific decision: what should make South Australia’s electricity? It follows the three phases of socioscientific decision-making in a review by Fang, Hsu and Lin (2019): students formulate the decision space (screens 2 to 6 build a matrix of seven options against six criteria, each with its evidence), posit a decision-making strategy (screen 7: weighing, cut-offs or both) and reflect on the process (screen 8 tests the choice and asks what would change their mind). Fang and colleagues reviewed 24 studies and found that students struggled with ranking criteria and choosing a suitable strategy, so screen 7 makes both explicit. Eggert and Bögeholz (2010) found that the more advanced strategies weigh trade-offs between criteria and reflect on how the decision was structured, while basic strategies rely on cut-offs. In a study of 386 upper secondary students, training in decision-making strategies improved their decisions, and the gains were still there three months later (Gresch, Hasselhorn and Bögeholz, 2013).
- Timing. About two to two and a half hours: three 50-minute lessons, or two 60-minute lessons with the notebook questions for homework. Lesson 1: screen 1 together (the first answers in the notebook and how the decision works), then screens 2 to 4. Lesson 2: screens 5 to 7, ending with a class comparison of the rankings. Lesson 3: screen 8, the recommendation, screen 9 and the decision sheet.
- Pairs or alone. Pairs work well on screens 7 and 8: each student sets weights alone, then the pair compares rankings and has to agree a mix for screen 8.
- Discussion points. After screen 7, ask the class to share their top source and their heaviest weight. With every weight equal, geothermal ranks first, because the matrix scores each source on its evidence, not on whether it can be built here now; screen 3 shows why it has not been. Ask what criterion the matrix leaves out (whether a source is proven here, how long it takes to build, who it affects), and try the cut-off for sources already in commercial use. After screen 8, ask whether importing electricity is a sustainable answer: in the model it counts as non-renewable and carries the emissions of Australia’s average power station.
- The decision sheet has a matrix to fill in as students go, a table for the need and limits of each renewable, and a page for weights, test results and the recommendation. Collect it as evidence of learning.
Handle with care
- Nuclear power is part of a live political debate in Australia. The lesson gives nuclear’s evidence and scores like any other source, states the federal prohibition as the law now stands, and takes no side. Let students argue from the evidence, and note that the weights they choose carry their values.
- Some students’ families work in gas, mining, the electricity industry or renewables, and Port Augusta lost jobs when its coal power station closed. Keep the discussion on evidence and on the choices a state faces, not on whose work is good or bad.
- Goyder South is on the lands of the Ngadjuri Nation, and the decision to build a national radioactive waste facility near Kimba was set aside by the Federal Court after a challenge by the Barngarla people. The lesson names these facts and tells no other story about them. If you discuss them, follow your school’s protocols and, where you can, the guidance of the communities involved.
- Blackouts, heatwaves and power bills can be real worries at home, and some families remember the 2016 blackout. Keep the focus on how the grid works and how it has changed since.
Misconceptions the screens target
- Renewable energy has no emissions and no waste (screens 2 and 6, x5). Over their whole lives, wind and solar cause about 11 and 52 g of CO2-e per kWh, and panels, blades and batteries become waste.
- Nuclear power releases a lot of carbon dioxide (screen 2’s matrix, x6). Its lifecycle emissions, about 5.6 g per kWh, are the lowest of the seven; its lowest scores in the matrix are for lasting, cost and waste.
- Gas is clean because it emits less than coal (screen 2’s matrix). About 439 g per kWh is less than half of coal’s 970 g but about forty times wind’s, and methane leaks from wells and pipes.
- A more efficient technology is always the better source (screen 4, q-collect). A panel’s 23% costs it area and materials but no fuel; a gas plant’s 45% still means fuel burned and carbon dioxide released for every unit lost.
- Batteries make electricity, or store it without loss (screen 5, q-store). A battery gives back about 82 to 85% of what it takes in, and only what was put in.
- Solar caused the Alice Springs blackout (screen 5, q-isolated). A sudden fall in solar output started it, but the investigators did not find cloud cover to be a root cause, and the Utilities Commission found it could not be attributed to a single point of failure.
- Enough batteries can cover any gap (screen 5, q-still, x4). A battery charged within a day cannot cover a still week, because there is little spare wind or solar to charge it.
- Hydrogen is an energy source (screens 3 and 5). It has to be made, from natural gas or with electricity, and turning it back into electricity returns about 30 to 40%.
- Geothermal energy needs volcanoes (screen 3). The hot granite of the Cooper Basin is heated by radioactive decay and kept hot by the sediment above it.
- South Australia’s 100% net renewable target means renewables supply every hour (screen 2). Net means over a year: the state still imports electricity and burns gas when the wind and sun drop.
- A decision matrix gives the right answer (screen 7, x7). The ranking depends on the scores and the weights, and the weights are choices.
- Waste from renewables is the same problem as waste from coal (screen 6, q-waste). Coal ash runs to millions of tonnes a year; panel and blade waste is growing but is tens of thousands of tonnes, and much of it can be recycled.
About the data and the models
- The world’s energy (screen 2): Our World in Data’s energy dataset, from the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy (2025) and the US Energy Information Administration. Electricity from nuclear power and renewables is counted as the fuel a power station would need to make it (the substitution method). Renewables are hydro, wind, solar, biofuels and other renewables. The world used 43,194 TWh in 1965 and 175,272 TWh in 2024, 4.1 times as much, and 81% of the 2024 total came from coal, oil and gas (our arithmetic).
- South Australia’s electricity (screen 2): AEMO’s South Australian Historical Market Information Report (2016, 2017) for 2011–12 to 2016–17, and its South Australian Electricity Report (2019 to 2023, and 2025) for later years, each year taken from the latest report that gives it. Solar is rooftop panels, solar farms and PV non-scheduled generation (100 kW to 30 MW). Other is batteries, diesel and other small generators. Net imports are interstate flows into South Australia less flows out.
- The Alice Springs system black (screen 5): 11,996 customers and an incident lasting 605 minutes are the Utilities Commission’s figures (2021); the Australian Energy Council (2020) gives an estimated 12,000 customers. The account of the first event and of cloud cover comes from the Entura report as quoted by the Australian Energy Council.
- The decision matrix: each score comes from the evidence beside it by the rule stated for its column. Some scores are judgements, and students may move any score one point if they can back it with evidence. The judgements are: lasting (geothermal 4, because taking the heat out can cool a reservoir for centuries; bioenergy 3, because crops regrow only if the land is looked after); land (wind and gas scored on the land their equipment covers, not the whole area they are spread across; solar on solar farms, though rooftop panels take no extra land); cost (geothermal and bioenergy have no GenCost figure, so geothermal is scored 2 from Australia’s deep, costly wells and the closed Habanero plant, and bioenergy 3 from IRENA’s world average, more than twice that of wind and nearly twice that of solar); on demand (gas 5 because it can be turned up when needed, as AEMO describes its role; coal, nuclear, geothermal and bioenergy 4 because they can run at any hour but are built to run steadily); and the whole Waste column, which ranks very different wastes by amount, how long they last and where they go.
- Lifecycle emissions: UNECE (2021), as transcribed by Our World in Data, for coal, gas, nuclear, onshore wind and solar; NREL (2017) for hot rock geothermal; IPCC (2014) for electricity from crops grown for energy. Land use: the medians of Lovering and others (2022). Costs: the indicative ranges in CSIRO’s GenCost 2025–26 draft (December 2025), as listed by the Clean Energy Council; the final report (July 2026) gives each technology’s range only in its charts and data tables. The GenCost technology costs used here leave out firming; GenCost’s whole-system estimates, such as the final report’s cost for 2050, include it.
- Efficiency (screen 4): solar from Fraunhofer ISE (2026); the Betz limit and “typically, below 50 %” for real turbines from a University of Illinois lecture (2018); coal from the IEA (2012); gas and nuclear from the US Energy Information Administration’s heat rates for 2025 (3,412 Btu per kWh divided by the heat rate; our arithmetic); photosynthesis from Zhu, Long and Ort (2008). Network losses of 4.2% are Australia’s for 2025 (World Bank, from IEA data).
- The wind turbine model (screen 4) uses the Vestas V162-6.2 MW’s rated power, cut-in and cut-out speeds (Vestas) and its rated wind speed of 10.5 m/s (a turbine database). The power in the wind is ½ρAv³ with air at 1.225 kg/m³. Between 3 and 10.5 m/s the turbine’s output is a smooth curve capped at 48% of the power in the wind, not the manufacturer’s measured curve.
- The grid model (screens 5 and 8) is a simple hourly balance, not a forecast. Demand includes what homes make and use from their own panels. Its weather and demand are drawn to show the pattern of each real event named, scaled to South Australia; they are not measured data. Each hour, coal, nuclear and geothermal run steadily at 90% of capacity, wind and solar make what the weather allows, and the rest of demand is met by the battery, then bioenergy, then other states, then gas. A surplus charges the battery, then goes to other states, and the rest is wasted. Each period is run twice and the second run kept, so the battery starts with the charge the same days would leave it. The “South Australia, 2026” mix is wind 2,800 MW (2,763 MW registered at the end of 2024–25), solar 4,200 MW (3.1 GW of rooftop panels in the third quarter of 2026, plus 729 MW of solar farms and 339 MW of PV non-scheduled generation), gas 2,600 MW (2,569 MW registered), batteries 1,700 MW for 3 hours (the state government’s “around 1.7 GW of power and close to 5 GWh of storage”) and links of 970 MW (Heywood’s 600 MW testing limit into South Australia, Murraylink’s 220 MW and Project EnergyConnect’s 150 MW). In the winter week the links bring in only half their limit on the three still days, to stand for the constraint AEMO reported on imports in June 2026; AEMO did not give its size, so the half is our choice. Emissions use lifecycle averages, with 0.62 t per MWh for electricity from other states, the 2024–25 average of the direct emissions of Australia’s power stations (Clean Energy Regulator; our arithmetic). The model leaves out lines inside the state, inertia and system strength, breakdowns and prices, and it uses the battery as soon as supply falls short, which is simpler than how real batteries are run.
- The waste chart (screen 6) puts estimates from different years on one scale that rises ten times at each step. Coal ash is an estimate for Australia (Environmental Justice Australia, 2019, year of the estimate not stated); solar panel waste is a prediction for 2025 (NSW Government, 2025); blade waste is the most in any one year to 2034 (Clean Energy Council, 2023); lithium-ion waste covers all uses (CSIRO, 2024); spent fuel is one typical overseas reactor (IAEA, 2017).
- Where the sources disagree, the page or these notes say so. Hydrogen’s round trip: about 30% (Pellow and others, 2015), about 35% (NREL, 2019) and around 40% (Sandia); the page gives 30 to 40. Batteries: 82% measured for the US fleet in 2019 (US Energy Information Administration) and 85% assumed by NREL (2024); the page gives both. Heywood: designed for up to 650 MW either way, with a testing limit of 600 MW into South Australia in 2026 (AEMO); the page gives the design figure and the model uses the limit. The Cooper Basin: about 250 °C at the bottom of Habanero 1 at 4,421 m (Wyborn and others, 2005) and more than 270 °C at 4,911 m (Geoscience Australia, about 2010); temperatures differ by well and by date. South Australia’s record low demand in October 2024: −205 MW as generated or −209 MW sent out, on the same day in the same report (AEMO, 2025). The Hydrogen Jobs Plan: $593 million in the government’s and CSIRO’s accounts and about $600 million in news reports, and “deferred” (Government of South Australia, February 2025) or “officially cancelled” (RenewEconomy headline, May 2025); the page uses $593 million and deferred. South Australia’s batteries in 2026: the state government gives “around 1.7 GW of power and close to 5 GWh of storage”, but AEMO’s account of 21 and 22 June 2026, when the fleet fell to “well below 200 MWh or around 10% of storage capacity”, points to about 2 GWh of storage then (our arithmetic); screen 5 and the model use the government’s figures. GenCost’s nuclear costs: in March 2024 the federal opposition’s energy spokesman called the report “largely discredited” and CSIRO’s chief executive defended it (RenewEconomy, 2024); in 2025 an expert quoted by AAP FactCheck said he had no confidence in anyone’s predictions of what nuclear power would cost in Australia.
- The hydroelectricity context in the outline: we found no source that identifies the well-managed plant in the Italian Alps. Foam on the Tietê River near São Paulo “is caused mostly by untreated household runoff from nearby São Paulo” (National Geographic, 2010) and forms where the polluted water is churned at dams and rapids; it was first seen a few years before 1993 (National Geographic, 2010). We found no report of a black foam. The nearest is black, pasty water at Salto on 27 November 2014, which the state environment agency put down to heavy rain washing waste into the river (Estado de Minas, 2014).
Answers at a glance
- Screen checks: q-need, fossil fuels are not replenished and release carbon dioxide while demand grows; q-sources, the hot rock is deep and remote so the wells cost too much; q-collect, low efficiency costs a panel area but a gas plant fuel and carbon dioxide; q-store, about 820 to 850 MWh; q-still, little spare wind or solar to charge it; q-isolated, an isolated system cannot import, so its own generators must cover a sudden shortfall; q-waste, coal leaves far more solid waste, plus carbon dioxide; q-weigh, the comparison that names geothermal and bioenergy; q-strategy, a grid can combine sources; q-test, a still spell can last days.
- Needed or limited: needed, E10 ethanol, liquid fuels for aviation and heavy transport, half of homes with panels, wind as the biggest source, the lowest-cost new supply and geothermal running day and night; limited, food and feed competition, demand below zero, no electricity at night, the June 2026 lull, deep and costly geothermal wells, and rock cooled for centuries.
- Temperature against depth: at 4 km the average is about 140 °C and the Cooper Basin granite about 229 °C, so about 90 °C hotter. The heat comes from the decay of uranium, thorium and potassium in the granite, held in by about 3.8 km of sediment.
- Collecting: a rooftop panel turns about 23 of 100 units into electricity; a wind turbine can catch at most 59.3 and real turbines below 50; coal sends out about 33 and delivers about 31.6; combined-cycle gas about 45, open-cycle about 31, nuclear about 33; photosynthesis stores at most 4.6 to 6. The turbine at 8 m/s: the wind carries about 6.5 MW through the blades and the turbine makes 2.7 MW. Module prices fell from US$0.79 to US$0.12 per watt between 2014 and 2025, about 85%.
- The day model, sunny and still, with the 970 MW links: with no storage, about 840 MWh of gas and 13,080 MWh from other states. A 2,000 MWh battery takes in about 2,170 MWh of spare wind and solar, gives back about 1,840 and cuts gas to about 200 MWh, under 1% of demand. A 10,000 MWh battery leaves about 130 MWh of gas, used in the morning after the battery has run down overnight, and cuts imports to about 4,570 MWh. Hydrogen of 15,000 MWh takes in 5,000 MWh and gives back only 1,750. On the cloudy, still winter day there is no spare wind or solar, so storage of any size changes nothing: gas supplies about 24% of demand and other states about 58%.
- Where waste ends up: into the air, carbon dioxide from coal and gas and leaked methane; dams or tailings on site, coal ash and the Olympic Dam tailings; isolated for thousands of years, spent fuel; recycled or landfilled, panels, blades and battery cells; back underground, geothermal water.
- The matrix with every weight equal: geothermal 77%, wind 73%, solar 70%, gas and nuclear 63%, bioenergy 60%, coal 43%. If on demand does not count, wind comes first; if cost and on demand count most, gas and geothermal tie. With the cut-off for sources already in commercial use, wind comes first. Group averages, renewable against non-renewable: greenhouse gases 4.0 and 2.7, lasting 4.3 and 1.0, land 3.3 and 4.0, cost 3.5 and 2.7, on demand 2.5 and 4.3, waste 3.5 and 2.3.
- The mix model: South Australia’s 2026 mix keeps the lights on in all three weeks, with renewables meeting 100%, 49% and 85% of demand hour by hour in the spring, winter and summer weeks, and 120 kt of emissions in all. Each source alone, at the size the preset sets: geothermal (2,500 MW) leaves 18 hours of the heatwave unmet; wind (6,000 MW) leaves 122 hours of the winter week unmet; gas (3,500 MW) keeps the lights on but emits about 330 kt; bioenergy (2,500 MW) is renewable but emits about 170 kt, more than the 2026 mix. Mixes that meet all three goals include wind 6,000 MW, solar 8,000 MW, batteries 4,000 MW for 12 hours, links 1,700 MW and gas 2,600 MW kept for backup; or wind 4,000 MW, solar 6,000 MW, batteries 3,000 MW for 6 hours, geothermal 1,000 MW, links 1,700 MW and gas 2,600 MW. There are many others.
- Exit check: x1 energy use grows and fossil fuels are not replenished; x2 biofuels compete with food and feed; x3 combined-cycle gas burns less gas than open-cycle; x4 wind fell, imports were limited and the batteries ran flat; x5 spent fuel; x6 gas against wind; x7 the ranking depends on values; x8 wind and solar with storage, links and some firm supply.
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References
- ANZ (2026). From feedstocks to fuels: Australia’s evolving biofuels sector (discussion paper).
- Australian Energy Council (2020, 14 February). Is there a cloud over NT’s energy transition?
- Australian Energy Market Operator (2017). Black System South Australia 28 September 2016 (integrated final report).
- Australian Energy Market Operator (2018). Initial operation of the Hornsdale Power Reserve Battery Energy Storage System.
- Australian Energy Market Operator (2016, 2017). South Australian Historical Market Information Report; (2019 to 2023, 2025). South Australian Electricity Report.
- Australian Energy Market Operator (2025, 2026). Quarterly Energy Dynamics, Q4 2024, Q4 2025, Q2 2026 and Q3 2026.
- Canadell, J. G., and others (2021). Global carbon and other biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Chapter 5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
- Clean Energy Council (2023). Winding up: Decommissioning, recycling and waste management of Australian wind turbines.
- Eberle, A., Heath, G., Carpenter Petri, A., & Nicholson, S. (2017). Systematic review of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from geothermal electricity (NREL/TP-6A20-68474). National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
- Eggert, S., & Bögeholz, S. (2010). Students’ use of decision-making strategies with regard to socioscientific issues: An application of the Rasch partial credit model. Science Education, 94(2), 230–258. https://doi.org/10.1002/sce.20358
- Environmental Justice Australia (2019). Unearthing Australia’s toxic coal ash legacy: How the regulation of toxic coal ash waste is failing Australian communities.
- Fang, S.-C., Hsu, Y.-S., & Lin, S.-S. (2019). Conceptualizing socioscientific decision making from a review of research in science education. International Journal of Science and Mathematics Education, 17(3), 427–448. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10763-018-9890-2
- Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (2026). Photovoltaics report.
- Geoscience Australia (2026). Australia’s Energy Commodity Resources 2026.
- Geoscience Australia and ABARE (2010). Australian Energy Resource Assessment, Chapter 7: Geothermal energy.
- Graham, P., Hayward, J., & Foster, J. (2026). GenCost 2025–26: Final report. CSIRO.
- Gresch, H., Hasselhorn, M., & Bögeholz, S. (2013). Training in decision-making strategies: An approach to enhance students’ competence to deal with socio-scientific issues. International Journal of Science Education, 35(15), 2587–2607. https://doi.org/10.1080/09500693.2011.617789
- Headley, A. J., & Schoenung, S. Hydrogen energy storage. In Energy Storage Handbook, Chapter 11. Sandia National Laboratories.
- IEA Bioenergy (2024). Implementation of bioenergy in Australia: 2024 update (country report).
- International Energy Agency (2012). Technology roadmap: High-efficiency, low-emissions coal-fired power generation.
- IRENA (2026). Renewable power generation costs in 2025. International Renewable Energy Agency.
- Lovering, J., Swain, M., Blomqvist, L., & Hernandez, R. R. (2022). Land-use intensity of electricity production and tomorrow’s energy landscape. PLOS ONE, 17(7), e0270155.
- NT Government (2019). Media release on the independent investigation into the Alice Springs system black. Minister for Renewables, Energy and Essential Services.
- Pellow, M. A., Emmott, C. J. M., Barnhart, C. J., & Benson, S. M. (2015). Hydrogen or batteries for grid storage? A net energy analysis. Energy & Environmental Science, 8, 1938–1952.
- Rybach, L. (2003). Sustainable use of geothermal resources: Renewability aspects. United Nations University Geothermal Training Programme.
- Schlömer, S., and others (2014). Annex III: Technology-specific cost and performance parameters. In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
- UNECE (2021). Life cycle assessment of electricity generation options. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe.
- Utilities Commission of the Northern Territory (2021). Northern Territory Power System Performance Review 2019–20.
- Utilities Commission of the Northern Territory (2023). Northern Territory Electricity Outlook Report 2022.
- Wyborn, D., de Graaf, L., Hann, S., & Nicholson, B. (2005). Progress in geothermal energy development, Cooper Basin, South Australia. The APPEA Journal.
- Zhu, X.-G., Long, S. P., & Ort, D. R. (2008). What is the maximum efficiency with which photosynthesis can convert solar energy into biomass? Current Opinion in Biotechnology, 19(2), 153–159.
Sources
- SACE Board of South Australia: Earth and Environmental Science; Fang and others (2019); Eggert and Bögeholz (2010); Gresch and others (2013)
- Screen 2: Our World in Data: energy dataset; Energy Institute: Statistical Review of World Energy; Geoscience Australia: AECR 2026 coal, oil, gas, uranium and thorium and overview; IPCC AR6 WG1 Chapter 5; AEMO: SAHMIR 2016; SAHMIR 2017; South Australian Electricity Report 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2025; InDaily (2016); Government of South Australia: Energy; Clean Energy Regulator: electricity sector emissions 2024–25 and data by facility; matrix: UNECE (2021), as transcribed by Our World in Data, NREL (2017), IPCC (2014) Annex III, US EIA: Biomass and the environment, Rybach (2003)
- Screen 3: ANZ (2026); Argus (2026); DCCEEW (2026); AEMO: Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q4 2025; Q2 2026; ARENA: Solar energy; ARENA: Wind energy; Neoen (2025); Neoen (2026); Electricity Authority (2026); Government of Iceland: Energy; Geoscience Australia: Geothermal energy resources; Australian Energy Resource Assessment (2010), chapter 7; AusGeo News (2007); AusGeo News (2009); Wyborn and others (2005); ARENA: Geothermal energy; ARENA: Cooper Basin project; Geodynamics (2013); RenewEconomy (2013); Arup for DESNZ (2025); Geoscience Australia: Hydrogen; Oresome Resources: Hydrogen fact sheet; CSIRO HyResource; InDaily (2025); Office of Hydrogen Power SA: annual report 2024–25; InDaily (2026); matrix: Lovering and others (2022)
- Screen 4: Fraunhofer ISE: Photovoltaics report; University of Illinois (2018); Institute of Mathematics and its Applications; IEA (2012); US EIA: operating heat rates and tested heat rates; Zhu and others (2008); World Bank: transmission and distribution losses; Vestas: V162-6.2 MW; wind-turbine-models.com; Our World in Data: solar panel prices; CSIRO: GenCost 2025–26 final report and executive summary; Clean Energy Council: GenCost draft; IRENA (2026); RenewEconomy (2024); AAP FactCheck (2025)
- Screen 5: US EIA: batteries and pumped storage (2021); NREL: Annual Technology Baseline 2024; NREL (2019): days of storage; Pellow and others (2015); Sandia: Hydrogen energy storage; AEMO: Interconnector capabilities (2026); AEMO: Heywood interconnector (2015); Murraylink (2017); US EIA: HVDC transmission (2018); AEMO: Black System report (2017); AEMO: Hornsdale Power Reserve (2018); Neoen: Hornsdale Power Reserve; ARENA (2020); CEFC (2022); matrix: US EIA: capacity factors (fossil and nuclear) and (renewables); IEA Bioenergy (2024); Utilities Commission: NT Electricity Outlook Report 2022; NT Power System Performance Review 2019–20; Australian Energy Council (2020); NT Government (2019)
- Screen 6: Environmental Justice Australia (2019); Clean Energy Regulator (2020); RenewEconomy (2019); ABC News (2018); SBS News (2017); Informed Infrastructure; ARPANS Act 1998; EPBC Act 1999, section 140A; BHP Olympic Dam (2020); IAEA (2017): Keeping it safe; AFP (2026); World Nuclear News (2026); ANSTO (2021); ARWA: national inventory (2025); Federal Court of Australia (2023); Minister for Resources (2023); NSW Government (2025); federal ministers (2026); ATSE (2026); Solar Victoria; Clean Energy Council (2023); CSIRO (2024); US EIA: Geothermal energy and the environment
- Screen 7: Fang and others (2019)
- Screen 8: AEMO: Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q4 2024; Q3 2026; InDaily (2016); Enel (2018); RenewEconomy (2016); Iberdrola: Port Augusta project; Government of South Australia: Smarter Homes; AEMO (2021)
- Teacher notes: National Geographic (2010); Estado de Minas (2014)